TSP Advisory Services: The Creation Year

In providing TSP Advisory Services performance records, we've previously
provided all records of each service from 2005 to the present.

However, in reviewing these records, we've noted a strong tendency for
advisory services to do exceptionally well in their creation years, yet
to fall off thereafter. As the creation years generally do NOT have
subscribers for the entire year, the performance during those years
cannot be verified.

Therefore, in an effort to ensure the validity of these records, we will
no longer track creation year performance records. Tracking will begin
with the first full year of performance, in which subscriptions or
official records were publicly available during the entire year.

Our TSP Advisory Services performance files have been revised accordingly.

2009 GS Locality Pay Schedules

2009 Increases by Locality

Atlanta 4%
Boston 4.13%
Buffalo 3.81%
Chicago 3.99%
Cincinnati 3.35%
Cleveland 3.81%
Columbus 3.63%
Dallas 3.95%
Dayton 3.47%
Denver 3.75%
Detroit 3.76%
Hartford 3.82%
Houston 3.62%
Huntsville 4.01%
Indianapolis 3.55%
Los Angeles 3.93%
Miami 3.85%
Milwaukee 3.71%
Minneapolis 3.70%
New York 4.2%
Philadelphia 3.85%
Phoenix 4.1%
Pittsburgh 3.73%
Portland 3.76%
Raleigh 3.39%
Richmond 3.52%
Sacramento 4%
San Diego 4.11%
San Francisco 4.31%
Seattle 4.03%
Washington DC 4.78%

September Song

September is a fascinating month for the markets.

It is traditionally the worst month of the year. That is, over the past
60 years, if you had invested only in September, your return would be
lower than that of any other month. In fact, you would lose about .6%
EACH YEAR, on average.

Yet, over the last five years, September has been far more
promising. It had the second best monthly return both last year and over the
past three years. (One year = 3.5%) (Three years = 2.2% yearly)

So, we are now likely beginning to enter a positive season for the markets. The seasonally bullish season used to begin in mid October but now seems to begin as early as September.

That said, do you think we should hold on or use the upcoming rally (assuming that we see one this year) to exit the markets? Will we see another bear cycle next year? What are your thoughts?

Selling In A Bear Market

I think its fairly clear at this point that we are not only in a long term bear market, but that we will be moving lower from here, perhaps considerably lower. Note the two year head and shoulders formation that began in late 2006.





That said, due to seasonal and other factors, we'll likely be moving higher in the short term. Should the I fund reach the top of its current trend line, it would appear to be a good time to move to the sidelines. Otherwise, we continue to monitor the base and sell if it is breached.

What is your opinion of the state of the markets today?

How Should the Fed Fight Stagflation?

The Fed continues to fight the stagflation being experienced in the US by attacked the worst offender. Of course, the emphasis is on fighting the recession as this is an election year. Whenever there is a recession, the party in power generally gets thrown out, so there is always an emphasis on improving the economy regardless of the inflationary implications. In fact, that's what we've seen this year as well. Interest rates have been lowered dramatically despite the huge rises in the price of energy, and the huge declines in the value of the USD. Finally, the Fed thought they had the recessionary pressures under control and felt that they could now begin to attack the larger enemy...inflation. But as soon as they try, the recessionary pressures rise up out of the grave.
It becomes like punching a pillow. Whichever side you attack, the other comes back to bite you.

The Fed had planned to begin raising interest rates soon. However, with the markets tanking, will the Fed still take this bold step in this, an election year? Or will they, instead, continue to lower rates up until the election.

What do you think?

TSP Advisory Services Performance for 2005-2007

Three Years - 2005 - 2007

1. Thrift Trading 53.9%
2. TSP Advisory 47.3%
3. TSP GO High Risk 46.3%
4. TSP Key 41.8%
5. TSP Report 36.4%
6. TSP Wealth 27.8%
7. TSP Max 23.4%
8. TSP Pilot 22.4%
9. TSP Talk -(0.5)%

TSP Strategy 59.9%

How are YOUR TSP returns?

May So Far

S fund 2.5%
I fund 2.4%
L 2040 1.4%
L 2030 1.2%
L 2020 1.0%
C fund 0.8%
L 2010 0.7%
L Inc 0.4%
G fund 0.2%
F fund -0.2%

As they say in the Kentucky Derby, we're coming to the final turn for this month! Is this how the horses will finish? What do you think?

Midyear Election Year Indicators

First, remembering that this year ends in an "8", we should consider that over the past 9 decades, years ending in 8 were up 78% of the time (7 of 9).

Second, with respect specifically to Presidential Election Years, they have been UP from June to December 81% of the time since 1924 (17 of 21). (see below)

In other words, we have several bullish indicators for the remainder of this year.

1924 - up
1928 - up
1932 - up
1936 - up
1940 - up
1944 - up
1948 - down
1952 - up
1956 - up
1960 - down
1964 - up
1968 - up
1972 - up
1976 - down
1980 - up
1984 - up
1988 - up
1992 - down
1996 - up
2000 - up
2004 - up

Current TSP Returns

YTD: F fund 2.2%, G fund 1.3%, I fund -0.4%, S fund -0.8%, C fund -2.2%,

4 years: I fund 97.3%, S fund 59.5%, C fund 40.3%, F fund 23.6%, G fund 19.7%
3 years: I fund 65.4%, S fund 40.6%, C fund 29.6%, F fund 15.7%, G fund 14.5%
2 years:I fund 22.3%, F fund 15.2%, C fund 14.7%, S fund 12.4%, G fund 9.5%
1 year: F fund 7.3%, G fund 4.4%, I fund -1.5%, S fund -3.1%, C fund -4.0%
6 mo: F fund 3.4%, G fund 1.9%, I fund 0.0%, S fund -0.4%, C fund -1.3%,
3 mo: I fund 11.9%, S fund 6.7%, C fund 6.2%, F fund 1.2%, G fund 0.8%
2 mo: S fund 12.6%, I fund 11.9%, C fund 11.0%, F/G fund 0.6%
1 mo: S fund 5.3%, C fund 4.6%, I fund 4.2%, F fund 0.7%, G fund 0.2%
2 wk: I/S fund 2.7%, C fund 0.9%, F fund 0.2%, G fund 0.1%
1 wk: I fund 3.5%, S fund 3.1%, C fund 2.7%, G fund 0.1%, F fund -0.2%,

Equities lead over the past three months.
S fund leads over past two months.
I fund leading over past two weeks.

Election Years: From June to Dec

You'll be pleased to learn that, at least since 1952, 93% of the time (13 of 14 years), the last 7 months of an election year is decidedly bullish. The average gain for the period has been 7.2% for the S&P 500. The only exception was 2000, a most exceptional election year.

Why so bullish? As I've explained in the past, election years in general tend to be traditionally bullish, second only to pre-election years. Largely, this seems to be due to incumbents attempting to keep the bull going (literally) so that their party can remain in power. How do they do this? By lowering interest rates, even during a highly inflationary era. Sound familiar? Will it work this time also? What do YOU think?

Current TSP Returns

YTD: F fund 2.2%, G fund 1.3%, S fund -1.0%, I fund -1.4%, C fund -2.3%,

4 years: I fund 95.4%, S fund 59.1%, C fund 40%, F fund 23.6%, G fund 19.7%
3 years: I fund 63.6%, S fund 41.9%, C fund 30.7%, F fund 15.7%, G fund 14.7%
2 years:I fund 20.6%, F fund 15.5%, C fund 14.3%, S fund 12.1%, G fund 9.6%
1 year: F fund 7.4%, G fund 4.4%, I fund 0.2%, S fund -2.8%, C fund -3.2%
6 mo: F fund 3.3%, G fund 1.9%, S fund -0.7%, C fund -0.9%, I fund -1.1%
3 mo: I fund 10.8%, S fund 6.5%, C fund 6.0%, F fund 1.2%, G fund 0.8%
2 mo: S fund 12.3%, I/C fund 10.8%, F/G fund 0.6%
1 mo: S fund 7.8%, C fund 6.9%, I fund 6.7%, G fund 0.2%, F fund 0.1%
2 wk: S fund 2.4%, I fund 2.2%, C fund 1.1%, G fund 0.2%, F fund 0%
1 wk: S fund 2.6%, C fund 1.9%, I fund 1.3%, G fund 0.1%, F fund -0.2%,

Equities lead over the past three months.
S fund leads over past two months.

How Have You Done Since the January Low?

The markets hit bottom this year on Jan 23rd. Since then, returns have been as follows:

I fund 11.7%
S fund 8.6%
C fund 5.5%
G fund 1.1%
F fund -0.8%

Which funds will continue to lead?

Current TSP Returns

YTD: F fund 2.3%, G fund 1.3%, I fund -2.6%, S fund -2.7%, C fund -3.7%,

4 years: I fund 90.2%, S fund 55.8%, C fund 38%, F fund 23.7%, G fund 19.7%
3 years: I fund 60.5%, S fund 38.6%, C fund 28.3%, F fund 15.9%, G fund 14.7%
2 years:I fund 17.4%, F fund 15.9%, C fund 13%, G fund 9.6%, S fund 9.5%
1 year: F fund 7.3%, G fund 4.5%, I fund -0.7%, C fund -4.9%, S fund -5.6%,
6 mo: F fund 3.7%, G fund 2.0%, C fund -2.4%, S fund -2.9%, I fund -3.2%
3 mo: I fund 9.6%, C fund 4.7%, S fund 4.5%, G fund 0.9%, F fund 0.7%
2 mo: S fund 9.6%, C fund 7.6%, I fund 7.4%, F fund 0.8%, G fund 0.6%
1 mo: S fund 6.3%, I fund 5.6%, C fund 5.5%, G fund 0.3%, F fund -0.2%
2 wk: S fund 1.4%, I fund 1%, F fund 0.7%, C fund 0.6%, G fund 0.2%
1 wk: S fund 0.8%, I/F fund 0.2%, G fund 0.1%, C fund -0.2%,

Equities still lead over the past three months.
S fund leads over past two months.

TSP Advisory Services YTD

1. Matt's TSP Blog 7.7% (free)
2. TSP Max 1.4% ($100/yr)
3. TSP GO HR -(1.1)% (free)
4. TSP Fred -(2.9)% ($162/yr)
5. Maximizing TSP -(4.2)% ($240/yr)
6. TSP Key -(5.0)% ($100/yr)
7. Ebbchart -(11.6)% ($162/yr)

TSP Strategy -(3.8)% (free)
_______________________________________________
The following are not as of 5/9

Thrift Trading 4.8% (thru 4/25) ($279/yr)
TSP Wealth 2.7% (thru 5/2) (free)
TSP Wire -(4.5)% (thru 4/5) (free)
TSP Advisor -(4.8)% (thru 3/31)($120/yr)
TSP Report -(11.1)% (thru 4/15) ($100/yr)
________________________________________________
The following do not list YTD returns.

TSP Advisory ($55/yr)
TSP Pilot ($150/yr)

If you have questions about the TSP, you might want to join us in the TSP Strategy Forum, a small group of TSPers trying to grow our returns.

I Fund Leads Over Three Months Despite Strong USD

Current TSP Returns

YTD: F fund 2.3%, G fund 1.2%, I fund -2.7%, S fund -3.5%, C fund -4.1%,

4 years: I fund 87.3%, S fund 53.3%, C fund 37.3%, F fund 24.1%, G fund 19.7%
3 years: I fund 56.8%, S fund 35.9%, C fund 26.5%, F fund 16.4%, G fund 14.7%
2 years:I fund 15.6%, F fund 15.5%, C fund 9.7%, G fund 9.6%, S fund 4.5%
1 year: F fund 7.2%, G fund 4.4%, I fund -0.9%, C fund -5.4%, S fund -6.3%,
6 mo: F fund 4%, G fund 1.9%, C fund -4.2%, S fund -5%, I fund -5.3%
3 mo: I fund 11.8%, C fund 5.6%, S fund 4.5%, G fund 0.8%, F fund 0.7%
2 mo: I fund 10%, S fund 9%, C fund 8.4%, F fund 1.5%, G fund 0.6%
1 mo: I fund 3.3%, C/S fund 2.5%, G/F fund 0.2%
2 wk: I fund 2.8%, S fund 1.8%, F fund 1%, C fund 0.8%, G fund 0.1%
1 wk: I fund 0.9%, S/F fund 0.2%, G fund 0.1%, C fund -0.8%,

Note that the I fund now consistently leads over the past three months, two months, one month, two weeks and one week despite a concomitant rise in the USD. Why would that be? What do you think?

Equities Continue to Lead Over Three Months

Current TSP Returns

YTD: F fund 1.8%, G fund 1.2%, I fund -2.6%, S fund -2.7%, C fund -2.8%,

4 years: I fund 79.5%, S fund 49.5%, C fund 36.3%, F fund 22.1%, G fund 19.7%
3 years: I fund 57.1%, S fund 35.4%, C fund 28%, F fund 15.3%, G fund 14.7%
2 years:I fund 16.2%, F fund 14.9%, C fund 11.2%, G fund 9.6%, S fund 5.6%
1 year: F fund 6.8%, G fund 4.5%, I fund -1.1%, C fund -3.9%, S fund -5.6%,
6 mo: F fund 3.7%, G fund 1.9%, C fund -5.7%, S fund -6.3%, I fund -6.6%
3 mo: I fund 10.8%, C fund 7.4%, S fund 6.4%, G fund 0.9%, F fund -0.1%
2 mo: I fund 9.2%, S fund 9.1%, C fund 9%, F fund 1.3%, G fund 0.6%
1 mo: C fund 3.8%, S fund 3.5%, I fund 2.9%, G fund 0.3%, F fund -0.5%
2 wk: S fund 3.8%, C fund 3.1%, I fund 2%, G fund 0.2%, F fund 0%
1 wk: S/C fund 2%, I fund 1.5%, F fund 0.2%, G fund 0.1%,

Note that the rise in the USD has weakened the I fund in recent weeks.

TSP Advisory Services Performance YTD thru 5/2

1. Matt's TSP Blog 7.7% (free)
2. TSP Wealth 2.7% (free)
3. TSP Max 2.1% ($100/yr)
4. Maximizing TSP -(1.7)% ($240/yr)
5. TSP Fred -(2.9)% ($162/yr)
6. TSP Key -(5.0)% ($100/yr)
7. Ebbchart -(10.7)% ($162/yr)

TSP Strategy -(3.0)% (free)
_______________________________________________
The following are not as of 5/2

Thrift Trading 4.8% (thru 4/25) ($279/yr)
TSP Go HR -(1.8)% (thru 4/25) (free)
TSP Wire -(4.5)% (thru 4/5) (free)
TSP Advisor -(4.8)% (thru 3/31)($120/yr)
TSP Report -(11.1)% (thru 4/15) ($100/yr)
________________________________________________
The following do not list YTD returns.

TSP Advisory ($55/yr)
TSP Pilot ($150/yr)

Returns for 2005-2007 are in the Files Section of the Forum.

What If I Buy Last Month's Best TSP Fund?

I'm asked that question often, as in, will my TSP returns improve if I do this consistently? Well, think about it for a moment. What would it provide? Clearly, in a trending market with momentum, it should do just fine. It will be counterproductive however in a trendless market. What it really is, IMHO, is a moderate term momentum play.

How would it do? Let's see...

1989

G fund 8.8
F fund 13.9
C fund 31.0
LM fund 21.6

1990
G fund 8.9
F fund 8.0
C fund -3.2
LM fund 3.5

1991
G fund 8.2
F fund 15.8
C fund 30.8
LM fund 11.8

1992
G fund 7.2
F fund 7.2
C fund 7.7
LM fund 0.8

1993
G fund 6.1
F fund 9.5
C fund 10.1
LM fund 4.6

1994
G fund 7.2
F fund -3.0
C fund 1.3
LM fund 1.0

1995
G fund 7.0
F fund 18.3
C fund 37.4
LM fund 26.2

1996
G fund 6.8
F fund 3.7
C fund 22.9
LM fund 24.5

1997
G fund 6.8
F fund 9.6
C fund 33.2
LM fund 10.0

1998
G fund 5.7
F fund 8.7
C fund 28.4
LM fund 28.5

1999
G fund 6.0
F fund -0.9
C fund 21.0
LM fund 9.7

2000
G fund 6.4
F fund 11.7
C fund -9.1
LM fund 1.4

2001
G fund 5.4
F fund 8.6
C fund -11.9
S fund -9.0
I fund -21.9
LM fund 5.2

2002
G fund 5
F fund 10.3
C fund -22.1
S fund -18.1
I fund -16.0
LM fund -1.2

2003
G fund 4.1
F fund 4.1
C fund 28.5
S fund 42.9
I fund 37.9
LM fund 33.6

2004
G fund 4.3
F fund 4.3
C fund 10.8
S fund 18.0
I fund 20.0
LM fund 11.2

2005
G fund 4.5
F fund 2.4
C fund 5.0
S fund 10.5
I fund 13.6
LM fund 5.9

2006
G fund 4.9
F fund 4.4
C fund 15.8
S fund 15.3
I fund 26.3
LM fund 8.3

2007
G fund 4.9
F fund 7.1
C fund 5.5
S fund 5.5
I fund 11.4
LM fund 13.3

1989-2007 Totals
G fund 118.2
F fund 143.7
C fund 243.1
LM fund 219.9

Clearly, you would have done better during the 19 year period from 1989 thru 2007 by staying in the C fund rather than switching to the best fund of the previous month.

2001-2007 Totals
G fund 33.1
F fund 41.2
C fund 31.6
S fund 65.1
I fund 71.3
LM fund 76.3

As seen above, the Last Month (LM) fund tends to help during bear markets but loses money during bull markets. The question is..wouldn't it more productive to simply leave equities during extended bear markets and stay in during extended bull markets? What do you think?

How Well Does the I Fund Track the Benchmark?

When you compare the I fund to three other index mutual funds that are also to track the MSCI EAFE index, it appears that the I fund does a reasonably good job. However, given the lauded TSP low fees, shouldn't it be doing a better job, with less tracking error? I've asterisked the best fund in tracking the EAFE for each year for the past few years. Note that the I fund only came closest to the index in one year.

2002
I fund: -15.98%
Vanguard VDMIX: -15.70%*
EAFE: -15.66%

2003
I fund: 37.94%
Vanguard VDMIX: 38.61%*
EAFE: 39.17%

2004
I fund: 20.00%
Vanguard VDMIX: 20.25%*
Price PIEQX: 19.2%
Fidelity FSIIX: 19.9%
EAFE: 20.70%

2005
I fund: 13.63%
Vanguard VDMIX: 13.34%
Price PIEQX: 13.4%
Fidelity FSIIX: 13.7%*
EAFE: 14.02%

2006
I fund: 26.32%*
Vanguard VDMIX: 26.18%
Price PIEQX:26.3%
Fidelity FSIIX: 26.2%
EAFE: 26.86%

2007
I fund: 11.43%
Vanguard VDMIX: 10.99%
Price PIEQX: 11.8%*
Fidelity FSIIX: 10.7%
EAFE: 11.63%

Will the new limits on the TSP IFTs help to close this tracking error gap? We will see.....

Is The I Fund Keeping Pace with EAFE?

The I fund is supposed to mimic the returns of the MSCI EAFE. But how
well has it been achieving that goal? While the TSP is often lauded for
its low administrative fees, you never read about how well the I fund
has done in mimicing the returns of the MSCI EAFE.

In fact, here are the results:

2002
I fund: -15.98%
EAFE: -15.66%

2003
I fund: 37.94%
EAFE: 39.17%

2004
I fund: 20.00%
EAFE: 20.70%

2005
I fund: 13.63%
EAFE: 14.02%

2006
I fund: 26.32%
EAFE: 26.86%

2007
I fund: 11.43%
EAFE: 11.63%

6 YEAR TOTAL
I fund 93.34%
EAFE 96.72%

The TSP offered the I fund beginning in mid-2001. 2002 was its first
full year. From 2002-2007, the I fund returned 3.38% less than the
Index. That is an average of .563% per year. If you work for 40 years
with the Feds, and stay in the I fund, its a 22.52% gap.

Will the new limits on the TSP IFTs help to close this gap?
We will see.....

What Will the Fed Do Today?

Will they lower rates by .25% and say, "enough is enough, for now," as is anticipated, or will they instead do one more huge rate cut...or no rate cut at all?

The markets wait with great anticipation. The dollar has been relatively stable to bullish since mid-March.

My view: Yes, of course the Fed wants to stop lowering rates and bolster the US Dollar, but if you recall, they really weren't anxious to lower rates earlier this year either. Why did they? Because they felt that they had no other choice. They felt that they needed to act and act decisively to avoid a potentially humongous recession. As you may recall, the markets were crumbling like a huge rockslide in the Rockies. Whenever there is stagflation, the Fed generally favors fighting the more problematic issue, and whenever there is an election year, they generally lean more towards fighting recession. Why? In large part because whenever there has been a recession during an election year, the party in power has generally lost. There is a vested interest in fighting a recession. However, when the markets appear to stabilize, there again is an emphasis on fighting inflation, particularly now, when we have double digit inflation rates for energy and food. But the key question is, Can the Fed take a respite from fighting the recession? Will the markets tank without their "Fed fix?" And if they do tank, what comes next? Would Bernanke let the markets fall or would he prepare them for the next infusion of good times?

Stay tuned.

TSP Advisory Services Performance YTD thru 4/25

1. Thrift Trading 4.8% ($279/yr)
2. TSP Wealth 1.5% (free)
3. TSP Max 0.6% ($100/yr)
4. TSP Go HR -(1.8)% (free)
5. TSP Fred -(3.0)% ($162/yr)
6. Maximizing TSP -(5.0)% ($240/yr)
7. TSP Key -(5.9)% ($100/yr)
8. Ebbchart -(12.8)% ($162/yr)

TSP Strategy -(4.2)% (free)
_______________________________________________
The following are not as of 4/25

Matt's TSP Blog 3.8% (thru 3/31) (free)
TSP Wire -(4.5)% (thru 4/5) (free)
TSP Advisor -(4.8)% (thru 3/31)($120/yr)
TSP Report -(11.1)% (thru 4/15) ($100/yr)
________________________________________________
The following do not list YTD returns.

TSP Advisory ($55/yr)
TSP Pilot ($150/yr)

TSP Advisory Services Returns for 2005-2007 are in the files
of the TSP Strategy Forum.

TSP Equities Leading Steadily Over Three Months

YTD: F fund 1.3%, G fund 1.1%, C/I fund -4.2%, S fund -4.3%,

4 years: I fund 77.2%, S fund 43.2%, C fund 32.2%, F fund 20.7%, G fund 19.8%
3 years: I fund 55.1%, S fund 35.5%, C fund 27.4%, F fund 15.2%, G fund 14.7%
2 years:I fund 18.5%, F fund 14.3%, C fund 11.7%, G fund 9.7%, S fund 5.9%
1 year: F fund 6.3%, G fund 4.5%, I fund -2.0%, C fund -4.6%, S fund -8.3%,
6 mo: F fund 2.9%, G fund 2%, I fund -6.4%, C fund -6.7%, S fund -7.9%,
3 mo: I fund 6.9%, S fund 6.0%, C fund 5.6%, G fund 0.9%, F fund -0.7%
2 mo: I fund 4.2%, C fund 2.2%, S fund 1.1%, F fund 1.0%, G fund 0.6%
1 mo: I fund 6.1%, S fund 4%, C fund 3.5%, G fund 0.3%, F fund -0.7%
2 wk: C fund 4.9%, S fund 4.5%, I fund 3.9%, G fund 0.2%, F fund -1.2%,
1 wk: C/S fund 0.5%, G fund 0.1%, I fund 0%, F fund -0.2%

While equities are down YTD, they have been leading strongly over the past three months.

Are TSP Advisory Services Worthwhile?

That's an individual decision. Should you keep your money in an L fund or try a different allocation? Are pay services valuable? Do you get more of a return from an expensive pay service than a free one? That's what we've been tracking over the past few years, and hope to continue to follow in the future. These are the 3, 2 and 1 year returns thru Dec 2007. We track these and other services on a weekly basis on the forum, for free. We also track the allocations of our members on a monthly basis, for free.

TSP Advisory Services Performance
Three Year : 2005 - 2007

1. Thrift Trading 53.9%
2. TSP Advisory 47.3%
3. TSP GO High Risk 46.3%
4. TSP Key 41.8%
5. TSP Report 36.4%
6. TSP Wealth 27.8%
7. TSP Max 23.4%
8. TSP Pilot 22.4%
9. TSP Talk -(0.5)%

TSP Strategy 59.9%

TSP Advisory Services Performance
Two Year: 2006-2007

1. TSP Advisory 31.0%
2. TSP Go High Risk 29.3%
3. Thrift Trading 26.3%
4. TSP Report 27.5%
5. TSP Key 22.2%
6. TSP Talk Shark 16.8% (from 2/1/06)
7. TSP Pilot 15.3%
8. TSP Advisor 13.5%
9. TSP Max 9.8%
10. TSP Wealth 9.1%
11. TSP Talk -(0.9)%

TSP Strategy 40.7%


TSP Advisory Services Performance
One Year - 2007

1. Matt's TSP Blog 18.3%
2. TSP GO High Risk 11.6%
3. Thrift Trading 9.0%
4. TSP Advisory 9.0%
5. TSP Advisor 7.7%
6. TSP Talk Fred 5.7%
7. TSP Talk Shark 5.3%
8. TSP Pilot 4.2%
9. TSP Report 2.1%
10. TSP Wire 0.2%
11. TSP Wealth -2.0%
12. TSP Key -5%
13. TSP Max -5.3%
14. TSP Talk Ebbchart -5.8% (from 10/1)
15. TSP Talk -7.5%
16. Maximizing TSP -12.2% (From 6/24)

TSP Strategy 11.4%

Final IFT Rule Effective May 1, 2008

The FRTIB posted their proposed rule on trading curbs on March 10th. The final rule was issued today, effective May 1. In effect, despite 290 comments opposed and only 31 comments in favor, the FRTIB moved ahead with their proposal, without change. Clearly, their "mind" was made up last year and the negative comments had no effect other than to have the FRTIB defend their position more vociferously. Changes can now be made only through the legislative process. Do YOU agree with this new trading rule?

IFT Restrictions Will Not Stand!

The FRTIB's proposal to restrict interfund transfers would result in a more than 90% limitation from the previous policy. IMHO, it is simply too sudden and drastic a restriction for many participants. Will there be some restriction from the previous policy when all is said and done? It seems clear that the answer is YES. There are too many logical reasons to either charge for excessive transfers or not permit them at all. The question is, in light of the previous policy that permitted daily transfers, what form and extent of a restriction would be deemed fair and appropriate? I've stated that, rather than moving to 2 permitted transfers per month, that the TSP should consider instead the concept of permitting 24 transfers per year. It would incorporate the same limitations, only on a yearly basis, allowing participants additional flexibility with respect to when they wish to utilize their transfers. What do YOU think?

Equities Have Been Moving On Up!

For those who think that this year has been a gloomy one for the equity markets, the fact is that, while much of January was down hard, over the past 3 months, you would have done better investing in the equities than in the F or G funds. (See chart below) The question is, will this bullish trend continue?

4 years: I fund 78.5%, S fund 44%, C fund 33.1%, F fund 21.3%, G fund 19.8%
3 years: I fund 55.5%, S fund 29.5%, C fund 26.8%, F fund 16%, G fund 14.7%
2 years:I fund 18.5%, F fund 14.8%, C fund 10.1%, G fund 9.6%, S fund 4.4%
1 year: F fund 7.1%, G fund 4.5%, I fund -2.1%, C fund -4.6%, S fund -6.8%,
6 mo: F fund 3.8%, G fund 2%, I fund -5.5%, C fund -6.5%, S fund -7.7%,
3 mo: S fund 7.7%, I/C fund 5.3%, G fund 0.9%, F fund 0.1%
2 mo: I fund 6.8%, C fund 3.7%, S fund 2.6%, F fund 0.9%, G fund 0.6%
1 mo: I fund 9.4%, S fund 6.7%, C fund 4.5%, G fund 0.2%, F fund -0.7%
2 wk: C fund 1.2%, S fund 0.9%, I fund 0.6%, G fund 0.1%, F fund -0.3%,
1 wk: C fund 4.5%, S/I fund 4%, G fund 0.1%, F fund -0.6%

Welcome!

In this blog, I'll be providing my views with respect to the state of the markets as they are affecting the Federal Thrift Savings Plan. I'll also be discussing the actions of the FRTIB (Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board) and how they are affecting the TSP. Finally, I'll discuss the performance of the public TSP advisory services that are currently available, both pay and free, in an effort to assist Federal employees in deciding whether the L funds are really the way to go or whether there is a better way.

If you wish to comment on a post, please visit the TSP Strategy Forum (see link at right)
and express your opinion there. In that way, all members of the Forum, now numbering over 1,000, will be able to read your comments, and respond as well.