Sunday, May 18, 2008

Midyear Election Year Indicators

First, remembering that this year ends in an "8", we should consider that over the past 9 decades, years ending in 8 were up 78% of the time (7 of 9).

Second, with respect specifically to Presidential Election Years, they have been UP from June to December 81% of the time since 1924 (17 of 21). (see below)

In other words, we have several bullish indicators for the remainder of this year.

1924 - up
1928 - up
1932 - up
1936 - up
1940 - up
1944 - up
1948 - down
1952 - up
1956 - up
1960 - down
1964 - up
1968 - up
1972 - up
1976 - down
1980 - up
1984 - up
1988 - up
1992 - down
1996 - up
2000 - up
2004 - up
Today's TSP Charts
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)
S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
Wilshire 4500 (S Fund)
Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Complet (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
20min. delay http://finance.yahoo.com

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