I think its fairly clear at this point that we are not only in a long term bear market, but that we will be moving lower from here, perhaps considerably lower. Note the two year head and shoulders formation that began in late 2006.
That said, due to seasonal and other factors, we'll likely be moving higher in the short term. Should the I fund reach the top of its current trend line, it would appear to be a good time to move to the sidelines. Otherwise, we continue to monitor the base and sell if it is breached.
What is your opinion of the state of the markets today?